Heading towards low-carbon passenger car mobility: electricity vs hydrogen

Amela Ajanovic; Reinhard Haas

doi:10.55092/rse20230002

Article

Open Access

Heading towards low-carbon passenger car mobility: electricity vs hydrogen

Amela Ajanovic^∗Reinhard Haas

Vienna University of Technology (TU WIEN), Vienna, Austria

* ajanovic@eeg.tuwien.ac.at

Volume
Volume 1 Issue 1, 2023
Citation
Ajanovic A, Haas R. Heading towards low-carbon passenger car mobility: electricity vs hydrogen. Renew. Sust. Energy 2023(1):0002, https://doi.org/10.55092/rse20230002.
DOI
10.55092/rse20230002
Copyright
Copyright2023 by the authors. Published by ELSP.

Abstract

Due to pressing environmental issues, the need to head towards low-carbon mobility is growing. Battery electric- and fuel cell vehicles are considered to be key contributor to the decarbonization of the transport system. The core objective of this paper is to discuss the role of electricity and hydrogen in the decarbonization of passenger car mobility. Firstly, the recent developments, the current state of battery electric and fuel cell cars are described and the major barriers to a broader market penetration are identified. Next, their environmental and economic performance is analyzed in a dynamic scenario up to 2050 for the average of EU-15 countries in comparison to conventional fossil fuels used in internal combustion engine vehicles considering total costs of ownership and possible technological learning, as well as all relevant emissions. The major conclusions are: (i) Battery electric- and fuel cell vehicles could have clear environmental benefits in comparison to conventional cars, if electricity respectively hydrogen used is produced from renewables. (ii) The economic competitiveness of battery electric- and fuel cell vehicles is increasing over time due to technological learning especially regarding the battery and the fuel cells as well as expected prices on CO2. (iii) However, despite the fact that there may be significant progress regarding these alternative automotive technologies, it is obvious that also other strategies are necessary to head towards a sustainable transport sector.

Keywords

Electric vehicles; fuel cell vehicles; battery; emissions; costs

Preview

view pdf

References

[1]IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2021. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/keyworld-energy-statistics-2021 (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[2]European Commission. EU transport in figures. Statistical pocket book 2021, Available: https://transport.ec.europa.eu/media-corner/publications/statistical-pocketbook2021_en (accessed on 01 November 2022)
[3]Lim DJ, Jahromi SR, Anderson TR, Tudorie AA. Comparing technological advancement of hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) in different market segments. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2015 (97): 140-153.
[4] Feng S, Magee CL. Technological development of key domains in electric vehicles: Improvement rates, technology trajectories and key assignees, Appl. Energy 2020 (260): 114264.
[5]Du W, Zhao S, Jin L, Gao J, Zheng Z. Optimization design and performance comparison of different powertrains of electric vehicles. Mech. Mach. Theory 2021 (156): 104143.
[6]Van Mierlo J, Messagie M, Rangaraju S. Comparative environmental assessment of alternative fueled vehicles using a life cycle assessment. Transp. Res. Proc. 2017 (25): 3435-3445.
[7]Ajanovic A, Haas R. Prospects and impediments for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles in the transport sector, Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2021 46 (16): 10049-10058.
[8]Bubeck S, Tomaschek J, Fahl U. Perspectives of electric mobility: Total cost of ownership of electric vehicles in Germany. Transp Policy 2016 (50): 63-77.
[9]Al-Alawi BM, Bradley TH. Total cost of ownership, payback, and consumer preference modeling of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Appl. Energy 2013 (103): 488-506.
[10]Siebenhofer M, Ajanovic A, Haas R. How Policies Affect the Dissemination of Electric Passenger Cars Worldwide. Energies 2021 14(8): 2093.
[11]Ajanovic A. The future of electric vehicles: prospects and impediments. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Energy Environ. 2015 (4): 521-536.
[12]Arias NB, Hashemi S, Andersen PB, Træholt C, Romero R. Distribution System Services Provided by Electric Vehicles: Recent Status, Challenges, and Future Prospects. IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst. 2019 (20): 4277-4296.
[13]Backovsky D, Brown A., Ebadian M., Saddler J. , Nylund NO, Aakko-Saksa P, Waldheim L. The Role of Renewable Transport Fuels in Decarbonizing Road Transport. AMF Annex 58 /IEA Bioenergy Task 41 Project 10. 2020. Available: https://www.ieabioenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Production-Technologiesand-Costs.pdf (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[14]Adiatma JC. A Transition Towards Low Carbon Transport in Indonesia: A technological perspective. Study report, 2020. Available: https://iesr.or.id/pustaka/a-transitiontowards-low-carbon-transport-in-indonesia-a-technological-perspective (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[15]Clean Tecnica. 2021. Available: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/01/chart-whybattery-electric-vehicles-beat-hydrogen-electric-vehicles-without-breaking-a-sweat/ (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[16]Ajanovic A, Haas R. On the long-term prospects of power-to-gas technologies. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Energy Environ 2019 (8): e38.
[17]Pereirinha PG, González M, Carrilero I, Anseán D, Alonso J, Viera JC. Main Trends and Challenges in Road Transportation Electrification. Transp. Res. Proc. 2018 (33): 235-242.
[18]Bekel K, Pauliuk S. Prospective cost and environmental impact assessment of battery and fuel cell electric vehicles in Germany. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 2020 (24): 2220– 2237.
[19]Wróblewski, P, Drożdż W, Lewicki W, Dowejko J. Total Cost of Ownership and Its Potential Consequences for the Development of the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Powered Vehicle Market in Poland. Energies 2021(14): 2131.
[20]Wróblewski, P, Drożdż W, Lewicki W, Dowejko J. Total Cost of Ownership and Its Potential Consequences for the Development of the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Powered Vehicle Market in Poland. Energies 2021(14): 2131.
[21]Duigou AL, Smatti A. On the comparison and the complementarity of batteries and fuel cells for electric driving. Int. J. Hydrog. Energy 2014 (39): 17873-17883.
[22]Duigou AL, Smatti A. On the comparison and the complementarity of batteries and fuel cells for electric driving. Int. J. Hydrog. Energy 2014 (39): 17873-17883.
[23]Ajanovic A. Haas R. Electric vehicles: solution or new problem? Environ Dev Sustain 2018 (20): 7-22.
[24]Ajanovic A, Haas R, Schrödl M. On the Historical Development and Future Prospects of Various Types of Electric Mobility, Energies 2021 (14): 1070.
[25]Brunton L. The trolleybus story. IEE Review 1992 (38): 57-61.
[26]IEA, Global EV Data Explorer, 2021. Available: https://www.iea.org/articles/global-evdata-explorer (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[27]IEA, Global EV Outlook 2021. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-evoutlook-2021 (accessed on 5 December 2022).
[28]EV100, Climate Group EV100. Progress and insight report. The EV revolution is here, 2021. Available: https://www.theclimategroup.org/ev100-annual-report-2021 (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[29]Xu C, Dai Q, Gaines L. et al. Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries. Commun Mater 2020 (1): 1-10.
[30]Deng J, Bae C, Denlinger A, Miller T. Electric vehicles batteries: requirements and challenges. Joule 2020 (4): 511–515.
[31]Olivetti EA, Ceder G, Gaustad GG, Fu X. Lithium-ion battery supply chain considerations: analysis of potential bottlenecks in critical metals. Joule 2017 (1): 229– 243.
[32]Van den Brink S, Kleijn R, Sprecher B, Tukker A. Identifying supply risks by mapping the cobalt supply chain. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2020 (156): 104743
[33]Banza Lubaba Nkulu C, Casas L, Haufroid V. et al. Sustainability of artisanal mining of cobalt in DR Congo. Nat Sustain 2018 (1): 495–504.
[34]Thies C, Kieckhäfer K, Spengler TS, Sodhi MS. Assessment of social sustainability hotspots in the supply chain of lithium-ion batteries. Procedia CIRP 2019 (80): 292– 297.
[35]Castelvecchi D. Electric cars and batteries: how will the world produce enough? Nature 2021.
[36]UNCTAD. Developing countries pay environmental cost of electric car batteries, 2020. Available: https://unctad.org/news/developing-countries-pay-environmental-costelectric-car-batteries (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[37]Whiteaker J. Opinion: Let’s be honest, batteries are bad for the environment, 2021. Available: https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/insights/batteries-are-bad-for-theenvironment (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[38]Ponrouch A, Palacín RM. Post-Li batteries: promises and challenges. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 2019 (377): 20180297.
[39]Costa CM, Barbosa JC, Gonçalves R, Castro H, Del Campo FJ, Lanceros-Méndez S. Recycling and environmental issues of lithium-ion batteries: Advances, challenges and opportunities, Energy Stor. Mater. 2021 (37): 433-465.
[40]Chagnes A, Pospiech B. A brief review on hydrometallurgical technologies for recycling spent lithium-ion batteries. J. Chem. Technol. Biotechnol. 2013 (88): 1191-1199.
[41]Dunn JB, Gaines L, Sullivan J, Wang MQ(2012). Impact of recycling on cradle-to-gate energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of automotive lithium-ion batteries. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2012 (46): 12704-12710.
[42]Bloomberg NEF. EV Battery Prices Risk Reversing Downward Trend as Metals Surge. 2021. Available: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-09-14/evbattery-prices-risk-reversing-downward-trend-as-metals-surge (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[43]ACEA. Making the transition to zero-emission mobility. Progress report. Enabling factors for alternatively-powered cars and vans in the European Union. 2020. Available: https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_progress_report_2020.pdf (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[44]Trencher G, Edianto A. Drivers and Barriers to the Adoption of Fuel Cell Passenger Vehicles and Buses in Germany. Energies 2021 (14): 833.
[45]Hardman S, Shiu E, Steinberger-Wilckens R, Turrentine T. Barriers to the adoption of fuel cell vehicles: A qualitative investigation into early adopters attitudes. Transp. Res. A: Policy Pract. 2017 (95): 166-182.
[46]Wang J, Wang H, Fan Y. Techno-Economic Challenges of Fuel Cell Commercialization. Engineering 2018 (4): 352–360.
[47]IEA, Global Hydrogen Review 2021. Available: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/e57fd1ee-aac7-494d-a351- f2a4024909b4/GlobalHydrogenReview2021.pdf (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[48]Deloitte. Fueling the Future of Mobility Hydrogen and fuel cell solutions for transportation. Deloitte China. 2020 (1). Available: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cn/Documents/finance/deloitte-cnfueling-the-future-of-mobility-en-200101.pdf (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[49]Hyundai. Hydrogen Society - Safe and Cost-efficient FCEV. 2020. Available: https://tech.hyundaimotorgroup.com/article/hydrogen-society-safe-and-cost-efficientfcev/ (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[50]Pollet BG, Kocha SS, Staffel I. Current status of automotive fuel cells for sustainable transport. Curr Opin Electrochem 2019 (16): 90–95.
[51]Cano ZP, Banham D, Ye S, Hintennach A, Lu J, Fowler M, Chen Z. Batteries and fuel cells for emerging electric vehicle markets. Nat. Energy 2018 (3): 279–289.
[52] Kester J, Noel L, Zarazua de Rubens G, Sovacool BK. Policy mechanisms to accelerate electric vehicle adoption: A qualitative review from the Nordic region. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2018 (94): 719–731.
[53]Leibowicz BD. Policy recommendations for a transition to sustainable mobility based on historical diffusion dynamics of transport systems. Energy Policy 2018 (119): 357– 366.
[54]Wang J. Barriers of scaling-up fuel cells: Cost, durability and reliability, Energy 2015 (80): 509-521.
[55]Wang J. Barriers of scaling-up fuel cells: Cost, durability and reliability, Energy 2015 (80): 509-521.
[56]Wasterlain S, Candusso D, Harel F, Hissel D, François X. Development of new test instruments and protocols for the diagnostic of fuel cell stacks. J Power Sources 2011 (196): 5325-5333.
[57]Bae SJ, Kim SJ, Lee JH, Song I, Kim NI, Seo Y, et al. Degradation pattern prediction of a polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell stack with series reliability structure via durability data of single cells. Appl. Energy 2014 (131): 48-55.
[58]Pei P, Chen H. Main factors affecting the lifetime of proton exchange membrane fuel cells in vehicle applications: a review. Appl. Energy 2014 (125): 60-75.
[59]Abdin Z, Zafaranloo A, Rafiee A, Mérida W, Lipiński W, Khalilpour KR. Hydrogen as an energy vector, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 2020 (120): 109620.
[60]Hiesl A, Ajanovic A, Haas R. On current and future economics of electricity storage. Greenhouse Gas Sci Technol.2020 (10):1176–1192.
[61]Ellram L. Total Cost of Ownership: An Analysis Approach for Purchasing. Int. J. Phys. Distrib. 2015 (25): 4-23.
[62]Fleet Europe. How to understand TCO, 2021. Available: https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/financial-models/europe/features/how-understandtco?a=JMA06&t%5B0%5D=TCO&curl=1 (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[63] Argonne National Laboratory. Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles with different Size Classes and Powertrains, 2021. Available: https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2021/05/167399.pdf (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[64]Thiel C, Schmidt J, Van Zyl A, Schmid E. Cost and well-to-wheel implications of the vehicle fleet CO2 emission regulation in the European Union. Transp. Res. A: Policy Pract. 2014 (63): 25-42.
[65]Candelaresi D, Valente A, Iribarren D, Dufour J, Spazzafumo G. Comparative life cycle assessment of hydrogen-fuelled passenger cars. Int. J. Hydrog. Energy. 2021 (46): 35961-35973.
[66]Candelaresi D, Valente A, Iribarren D, Dufour J, Spazzafumo G. Comparative life cycle assessment of hydrogen-fuelled passenger cars. Int. J. Hydrog. Energy. 2021 (46): 35961-35973.
[67] T&E. Transport and environment: Can electric cars beat the COVID crunch? 2020. Available: https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/2020_05_Can_electri c_cars_beat_the_COVID_crunch.pdf (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[68]ACEA. Vehicles in use Europe 2022. Available: https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEAreport-vehicles-in-use-europe-2022.pdf#page=10 (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[69]Green Cars. Definitive Guide to Electric Car Batteries. Available: https://www.greencars.com/guides/definitive-guide-to-electric-car-batteries-range. (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[70]NRDC. Electric Vehicle Charging. 2019. Available: https://www.nrdc.org/experts/patricia-valderrama/electric-vehicle-charging-101 (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[71]Dillman KJ, Árnadóttir Á, Heinonen J, Czepkiewicz M, Davíðsdóttir B. Review and Meta-Analysis of EVs: Embodied Emissions and Environmental Breakeven. Sustainability 2020 (12): 9390.
[72]Philippot M, Alvarez G, Ayerbe E, Van Mierlo J, Messagie M. Eco-Efficiency of a Lithium-Ion Battery for Electric Vehicles: Influence of Manufacturing Country and Commodity Prices on GHG Emissions and Costs, Batteries 2019 (5): 23
[73]Bieker G. A global comparison of the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of combustion engine and electric passenger cars. ICCT white paper. Available: https://theicct.org/publication/a-global-comparison-of-the-life-cycle-greenhouse-gasemissions-of-combustion-engine-and-electric-passenger-cars/ (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[74]IEA. CO2 emissions statistics. Development of CO2 emission intensity of electricity generation in selected countries, 2000-2020. Available: https://www.iea.org/data-andstatistics/charts/development-of-co2-emission-intensity-of-electricity-generation-inselected-countries-2000-2020 (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[75]IEA. CO2 emissions statistics. Development of CO2 emission intensity of electricity generation in selected countries, 2000-2020. Available: https://www.iea.org/data-andstatistics/charts/development-of-co2-emission-intensity-of-electricity-generation-inselected-countries-2000-2020 (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[76] Rubin S, Azevedo I, Jaramillo P, Yeh S. A Review of Learning Rates for Electricity Supply Technologies. Energy Policy 2015 (86): 198-218.
[77] Weiss M, Patel MK, Junginger M, Perujo A, Bonnel P, Grootveld G. On the electrification of road transport - Learning rates and price forecasts for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles. Energy Policy 2012 (48): 374-393
[78]Krause J, Thiel C, Tsokolis D, Samaras Z, Rota C, Ward A, Prenninger P, Coosemans T, Neugebauer S, Verhoeve W. EU road vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050 – Expert-based scenarios. Energy Policy 2020 (138): 111224.
[79]IEA. Tracking Transport 2020. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/trackingtransport-2020 (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[80]50 by 50 Campaign. Global fuel economy initiative. Available: https://www.globalfueleconomy.org/media/46127/50by50-report-2009-lr.pdf (accessed on 5 December 2022)50 by 50 Campaign. Global fuel economy initiative. Available: https://www.globalfueleconomy.org/media/46127/50by50-report-2009-lr.pdf (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[81]Krause J, Thiel C, Tsokolis D, Samaras Z, Rota C, Ward A, Prenninger P, Coosemans T, Neugebauer S, Verhoeve W. EU road vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050 – Expert-based scenarios. Energy Policy 2020 (138): 111224.
[82]Auto Car. How to charge your electric car at home, 2021. Available: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/advice-electric-cars/how-charge-your-electriccar-home (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[83]ODYSSEE-MURE database. Available: https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/ (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[84]IEA Energy Prices and Taxes Statistics. Available: https://www.oecdilibrary.org/energy/data/iea-energy-prices-and-taxes-statistics_eneprice-data-en. (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[85]ALTER-MOTIVE model and database. Available: https://alter-motive.org/ (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[86]Eurostat database. Available: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/de/data/database (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[87]IEA. Global EV Data Explorer. Available: https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-dataexplorer (accessed on 5 December 2022)
[88]Osaka S. It’s common to charge electric vehicles at night. That will be a problem. The Washington Post, 2022. Available: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climateenvironment/2022/09/22/its-common-charge-electric-vehicles-night-that-will-beproblem/ (accessed on 5 December 2022)